Dissertation Research
Twenty-First Century Protection: The Commodity Boom Politics of Social Protection in Latin America
Abstract: After dominating the first decade of the twenty-first century, the political left in Latin America has been challenged by a resurging political right. Concomitantly, the commodity export boom that funded the expansion of social protection programs ended. Have these programs since been retrenched, and if so, under what political conditions? Using unique and recent data, this analysis offers three main findings. First, spending on social protection is closely associated with commodity export trends. Second, it is important to disaggregate the broad category of social protection into its distinct components when possible. Lastly, since the end of the commodity boom, left governments have been more likely to preside over the curtailment of social assistance, a progressive subcategory of social protection. This study contributes an understanding of the contemporary partisan politics of social protection in Latin America, as they relate to export-based economic expansions and contractions in particular.
Twenty-First Century Protection: Class, Redistribution,
and Political Attitudes in Latin America
Abstract: Across Latin America throughout the early 2000s, left-wing “Pink Tide” governments presided over unprecedented macroeconomic growth fueled by the commodity export boom, implemented progressive redistribution programs that alleviated poverty, and reduced economic inequality in the world’s most unequal region. Why, a short decade later, did voters replace many of these left-wing leaders with right-wing alternatives? I argue that a class-based political realignment occurred in conjunction with the end of the commodity export boom. Over this period the political left increasingly relied on the shrinking lower class at the expense of its traditional middle-class supporters, the middle class was inclined to support the political right in greater numbers because of this and declining economic growth, and the “vulnerable class” that exists between the lower and middle classes is bifurcated in terms of their support for the left based on whether members receive social assistance benefits or not. To test these arguments I use AmericasBarometer survey data spanning seventeen countries as well as the pre- and post-commodity boom periods. The empirical evidence suggests that the lower and middle classes have become more polarized in their support for, respectively, the political left and right over the last decade, and that social assistance beneficiary status is an important determinant of whether vulnerable class members are more likely to support the political left or right. These patterns have contributed to the recent electoral successes of the political right in Latin America, which themselves continue to shape political, economic, and social landscapes in the region.
Twenty-First Century Protection: Threat, Insecurity, and
Support for Authoritarian Populism in Latin America
Abstract: During the beginning of the twenty-first century, Latin Americans elected a left-wing “Pink Tide” of political leaders throughout the region. By the 2010s, however, the political right had reemerged, and in more recent years the populist radical right has grown. In previous research I examine class-based explanations for the general shift to the right, and here I analyze sources of—borrowing Norris and Inglehart’s (2019) term—authoritarian populist (AP) attitudes, in order to better understand demand for these types of right-wing leaders. Building upon research within and at the intersections of political science, social psychology, economics, and criminology, I argue that several varieties of insecurity intensify AP attitudes, which serve to address individuals’ cognitive needs to reduce uncertainty and threat. Using the most recent cross-national data from the AmericasBarometer survey, I find that increases in economic, physical, and health insecurity are associated with stronger AP attitudes, and that higher levels of these attitudes and threat align respectively with right-wing political ideology and attenuated support for redistribution. In a precarious environment, this evidence helps to explain the prevalence and determinants of AP attitudes, which are consequential for elections, policies, and the health of democracy.
Other Projects
Mobility Interrupted: A New Framework for Understanding Anti-Left Sentiment Among Brazil’s Once-Rising Poor
Forthcoming in Latin American Politics and Society
Abstract: How do sequences of upward and downward socioeconomic mobility influence political views among those who have “risen” or “fallen” during periods of leftist governance? While existing studies identify a range of factors, long-term mobility trajectories have been largely unexplored. The question has particular salience in contemporary Brazil, where, after a decade of extraordinary poverty reduction on the watch of the leftist Workers’ Party (PT), a subsequent period of economic and political crises intensified anti-PT sentiment. This paper utilizes original data from the 2016 Brazil’s Once-Rising Poor (BORP) Survey, using a three-city sample of 822 poor and working-class Brazilians to analyze the relationship between retrospective assessments of prior socioeconomic mobility and anti-PT sentiment. We found that people who reported a “stalled” mobility sequence (upward mobility followed by static or downward mobility) were more likely to harbor anti-left sentiment than other groups, as measured by our anti-PT index.
Recalibrating Individual Attitudes About Economic Inequality: An Experimental Analysis of Open-Ended Survey Responses
Description: In 2019 I worked with colleagues in the Department of Psychology at Ohio State to design and analyze an experiment that employed an existing treatment shown to attenuate individuals’ valence weighting biases. For this particular project, the outcome of interest was an open-ended question about economic inequality and redistribution. We analyzed these responses using structural topic models, a text analysis method especially useful for estimating treatment effects. The empirical evidence suggests that individuals’ expressed attitudes about economic inequality and redistribution are affected by valence weighting bias in attitude generalization, and that participants in the treatment condition tended to moderate by discussing more market-oriented solutions to economic inequality.
